The scuttlebutt in the news cycle seems to be perpetually about how Donald Trump is going to be denied the nomination. Wild theories about parallel candidacies for the nomination abound as people can’t seem to accept that Trump truly could be the anointed one.
The national outrage against Trump is palpable: from the Boston Globe’s mock front page showcasing the dismal future under a Trump presidency, to the wholehearted rejection by the traditional donor class, many people want to derail his candidacy by any means possible. In reality, the establishment’s rejection of Trump only further validates his base’s sneaking suspicion that the system is rigged against them.
His entire candidacy has turned the party establishment upside down and jolted the wider general American public. In this bizarre world of 2016 politics, the Bushes seem to be leaning toward voting for Hillary Clinton, and many Republicans, like Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, have made it clear that they won’t vote for Trump.
As talking heads drone on about hazy statistics and percentages that would deny Trump the nomination and hand the torch to John Kasich or Ted Cruz, it makes you wonder if any of these scenarios will actually come to pass. Is the 2016 Republican Convention going to be an unprecedented historical anomaly that students will learn about in civics classes for decades to come? The short answer is likely, no.
“I do not think Donald Trump will be denied the nomination, because there would probably be riots at the convention,” said Rich Rubino, blogger for The Huffington Post and author, most recently of The Political Bible of Humorous Quotations From American Politics.
“It would be like the 1968 Democratic Convention all over again,” Rubino said. “ My guess is that the party would give him the nomination, then instruct local and state Republican candidates to run on their own, even disavowing him if they have to.”
Rubino points out that in the 1968 Democratic Convention, “Hubert Humphrey only participated in one primary, South Dakota, but garnered more delegates by appealing directly to party leaders. Eugene McCarthy supporters protested across the street of the convention.”
Politics aside, no matter how unpalatable you may find Trump, many say it would be disastrous to deny him the nomination. Legions of Americans have gone through the trouble of turning out on primary election day and casting their votes for Trump. Nominating someone else would seem to make little sense. Many Trump supporters believe that he’ll succeed in getting the nomination despite widespread doubts.
“I believe Trump is a tenacious fighter and will find a path to the nomination, even with the obstacles that he faces from the establishment,” said Jennifer Johnson, a Trump supporter from Miami, Florida.
In reality, even if Trump succeeds in clinching the nomination, polls show that his path to the presidency is a long shot.